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Boys lacrosse in the Lower Hudson Valley with Joe Lombardi

Drum roll, please. … Here's my pick

May
14

I’ve looked at scores and stats.

I’ve studied player matchups.

I’ve sought input from reporters, coaches, players and all you folks.

Now, it’s time.

Time to announce my prediction for “The Game” in Section 1 boys lacrosse.

John Jay vs. Yorktown.

latino
John Jay is hoping for a strong showing from goaltender Chris Latino Friday night when it visits Yorktown. (Photo by Frank Becerra Jr./The Journal News)

It’s been a season of highs and lows for both John Jay and Yorktown as all you folks who have been dissecting the twists and turns of the teams’ big games here at Lax to the Max know.

Here’s just a brief sampling of some things to consider.

Yorktown beat nationally ranked St. Anthony’s 14-9 on April 10. Two days later, St. Anthony’s beat John Jay 16-12.

In case you’re tempted to conclude the ‘Huskers are nine goals better than John Jay — or even better at all — how about this?

John Jay beat Brewster 16-6. Yorktown edged Brewster 11-10.

As we’ve learned from what’s been a season marked by increased participation leading to increased parity throughout all levels of lacrosse, comparing scores against mutual opponents has become pretty much a waste of time.

So let’s look at the big picture. The bottom line, I think we can all agree, is that John Jay is probably not quite as strong a team overall as it was last year. And that’s neither a surprise nor a disappointment. After all, that ‘07 team has to be regarded as the best in the school’s 30-year history of varsity lax.

The fact that this year’s team may be close talent-wise is actually pretty impressive. As we all know, the Indians had to plug in an entirely new starting defense and lost two all-America attackmen who are now playing at Division I programs. For most teams, those type of losses invariably lead to a huge drop in performance.

I think we can also agree that Yorktown is a considerably better team than it was last season when it would have finished with a losing record for the first time since 1979 had it not beaten Lakeland/Panas in the sectional final. The ‘Huskers then went on to beat a Niskayuna team in the state quarterfinals that has beaten John Jay this season. The ‘Huskers then played eventual state champ West Islip, now ranked No. 3 nationally, very tough in the state semifinals.

Yorktown’s strong finish last year — and its returning talented — prompted John Jay coach Nick Savastano to tell me this before the season started: “On paper, they (Yorktown) may be better.”

The ‘Huskers also have an attribute they have frequently lacked — size. Especially on defense.

Yorktown’s offense, meanwhile, is lethal when it gets its fastbreak attack in gear.

Which means — to no surprise — faceoffs will be as important as anything in this game. (Not exactly breaking news.) Like I always say, the three biggest keys in any showdown like this are faceoffs, faceoffs and then faceoffs. (Followed by ground balls and goaltending.)

The primary matchup to keep an eye on in the faceoff X will be Tyler Granelli (JJ) vs. John Ranagan (Ytown).

Both players are also key scorers for their teams too.

Another key matchup will of course be in goal where arguably the two leading netminders in Section 1 — John Jay’s Chris Latino and Yorktown’s Michael Bonitatibus — will square off. Latino and Bonitatibus were the goalies on last year’s Empire State Games team.

Now to a few important intangibles that have to be considered.

If John Jay is to win, it would mark its fourth straight win against the ‘Huskers with three of those victories coming on Yorktown’s home field.

For that reason, you may think I might be going with John Jay.

But I’m a firm believer in the law of averages, and the fact that Yorktown is more than due to win a game in a series it has traditionally dominated is impossible to overlook.

So now, let’s get to it.

After all the analysis and insights, the bottom line is, when two strong teams meet in lacrosse, it often winds up being decided in overtime.

And it frequently comes down to a play that’s impossible to predict.

Like Rhamel Bratton of Huntington taking an ill-advised shot on goal with his Huntington team leading John Jay 10-9 with less than a minute to play in regulation. Latino made the save, giving John Jay possession. The Indians then tied it to force overtime seconds later, and went on to beat the top-ranked team in the nation 11-10 in double overtime to advance to the state title game for the first time in school history while ending Huntington’s 63-game win streak.

And speaking of OT, maybe we should just start Friday night’s game heading into it right off the bat.

Because I think there’s a good chance that’s what will wind up happening.

With that in mind, no prediction in such a scenario can be made with a strong degree of certainty.

That’s not a disclaimer, it’s just a fact.

Nevertheless, I feel pretty comfortable with this one.

Yorktown 8, John Jay 7

It should be fun.

That’s my take. And I’m sticking to it.

Before you weigh in with your thoughts, I thought you might be interested in this:

John Jay vs. Yorktown: Facts and figures

Records: John Jay 12-4; Yorktown 12-2

Goals scored: John Jay 221, Yorktown 164

Goals allowed: John Jay 105, Yorktown 111

Head coach: John Jay (Nick Savastano, ninth year); Yorktown (Dave Marr, sixth year)

Leading players: John Jay (Chris Bocklet, sr., attack; Kevin Drew, sr., midfielder; Tyler Granelli; sr., midfield/attack; Chris Latino, sr., goaltender; James Whalen, sr., defense; Harrison Jones, sr., attack; Billy LaPerch, sr., midfield). Yorktown (Rocky Bonitatibus, sr., midfield; John Ranagan, jr., goaltender; Michael Bonitatibus, sr., goaltender; Brendan Kurpis, sr., attack; Kevin Interlicchio, so., attack; John Froats, sr., attack/midfield; Ethan Fox, jr., defense).

Seniors signed with D-I programs: John Jay (Bocklet, Virginia; Drew, Syracuse; Granelli, Syracuse; Latino, Binghamton); Yorktown (Rocky Bonitatibus, Albany).

All-time sectional championships: John Jay 6, Yorktown 31

Number of state titles: John Jay 0, Yorktown 6

All-time leading scorer: John Jay (Bocklet, Class of ‘08); Yorktown (Tom Nelson, Class of ‘83)

Alumni actors: John Jay (Andy Milonakis, MTV’s “Andy Milonakis Show”; Matt Del Negro, “West Wing,” “Sopranos”); Stanley Tucci (”Prizzi’s Honor,” “Road to Perdition,” “Big Night”); Campbell Scott (”Dying Young,” “Singles,” “Big Night”). Yorktown: Andy Kavovit (”As the World Turns,” “The Magnificent Seven”).

Random alum: John Jay (Robert Reich, secretary of labor under President Clinton); Yorktown (Alexis Venechanos, UMass women’s lacrosse coach).

This entry was posted on Wednesday, May 14th, 2008 at 3:33 pm by Joe Lombardi.
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17 Responses to “Drum roll, please. … Here's my pick”

  1. OldTimer

    Joe

    If Town only scores 8, Jay wins.

    Town might win 16-14 … but not 8-7.

  2. Joe Lombardi

    Old Timer – I agree a higher scoring game favors Ytown, but the goaltenders are both too good for that to happen. As I said in the podcast, I'd be very surprised if it got into double figures, and shocked if either team got into the teens.
    Remember, 2005 sectional final – it was Yorktown 5, JJ 4 after JJ won the regular-season game 7-5.
    Also, in the last 13 meetings between the teams, the winning team has scored less than 10 goals six times.

  3. OldTimer

    Joe

    L/P can score 9 and Brewster can score 10 on Town, but Jay can't? .... and Rye can score 9 against Jay, but Town can't? Hmmm. I don't buy it.

    These are supposed to be the two best attacks in Section 1. Neither of these teams sport's the top defense. I think both teams are in double digits.

  4. Syracuse

    Gotta agree with Old Timer on this one. Yorktown will need at least 12 goals to win. Both goalies may be great, but both defenses aren't. There will be just so much Latino and Bonitatibus will be able to do.

    I still can't make up my mind on a prediction …

  5. Joe Lombardi

    Old Timer –
    That can happen for sure, but I'd be surprised.

    In the recent meetings between JJ and Yorktown, the pace has been settled and the scores have not gotten that high.

    Put it this way. Last year I think we can all agree when JJ and Yorktown met in the regular season, JJ was a heavy favorite and playing at home. Final score – 12-6 JJ. That's not a lot of goals even in that scenario with JJ's offense being a bit more powerful than this year and Yorktown's defense and goaltending at that point not nearly as strong as it is now.

    I originally had 9-8 as the final, but dropped it at the last minute to 8-7 when I saw the forecast of intermittent rain for Friday.

    You guys feel strongly and so do I. We'll just have to see. Should be interesting.

  6. NYLax10

    I am going with John Jay 11, Yorktown 8. Jay has been a different team since the big loss.

  7. chillax

    joe, great analysis and i think your pick is right on the mark. the defenses will be clogging up the crease area so there shouldn't be many good looks unless there are fastbreaks. also john jay offense is very motioned oriented and patient in big games like this which will limit the number of shots. i would even go with a 7-6 score for town.

  8. jaybirdlax

    Joe I'm dissapointed you didn't go wit Jay bc I have a lot of respect for your knowledge. It definately will be not a high scoring game. The teams will be tight wit the big crowd and all and that will also keep the score down.

  9. Laxman

    Yorktown wins unless Bocklett scores ten goals. Yorktown is the better team this year, but you never know. I say Town 12-11.

  10. Syracuse

    Long Island scores from 5/14:

    Rye and Jay fans, pay attention.

    Lynbrook 6, Garden City 5
    Manhasset 10, Cold Spring Harbor 5

    Interesting times people … Interesting times.

  11. Old School Fan

    JOE,

    I will take JJ on this one 15 – 13, and Kevin Drew will be your player of the game, he will make some noise.

  12. VAS

    JOE

    I always respect your knowledge and your picks. However,
    Jay is a much different Team after the Rye debacle. They got a wake-up call and they are finally showing their talent. I see Jay in a blowout!!

    Half time: Jay 8 – Town 2 Final: Jay 16 – Town 6

  13. Sec 1 lax fan

    The only definite outcome for tomorrow looks like rain – may keep score down into single digits. Final: 8-7 JJ wins

  14. Joe

    Based on these stats:

    Goals scored: John Jay 221, Yorktown 164
    Goals allowed: John Jay 105, Yorktown 111

    I would have to pick Jay to win by a goal or two.
    If they play the way they did against Comsewogue, Jay is unbeatable. That game was a total team effort, a lot of hustle and crisp passing.

  15. laxin

    11-10 town in OT Rocky wins it on a ripsky

  16. on tap-

    i think all previous scores and comparing similar opponents should be tossed out the window. this year for both JJ and Town has been full of games where they dont play up to their full potential. look at the difference in town between playing chaminade and darien/melville. the same goes for jay who came out playing amazing versus comsewogue. both these teams are stellar when they're fired up to play the other team. both these teams are going to be fired up for this game.
    JJ10- ytown 9

  17. LoveTownLax

    VAS – no blowout! brave prediction, though, you went way out on a shaky limb. good lax played by 2 good teams! YEAH 'TOWN!

    Old School Fan, wrong score, wrong Kevin – the name is INTERLICCHIO!

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With the Lower Hudson Valley one of the nation`s premier hotbeds for the fast-growing sport of lacrosse, Joe Lombardi brings you up to date on all the latest news.

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About the author
Joe Lombardi Joe Lombardi did not become familiar with lacrosse until after graduating from both Irvington High School and the University of Dayton Ñ neither of which offered the sport. But it didn't take him long to take a liking to lacrosse since it combines elements of several of his favorite sports: basketball, hockey and football. In addition to serving as local sports editor of The Journal News and LoHud.com, he also writes the weekly "Catching up with...":http://lohud.com/catchingup feature that appears on Tuesdays. Joe can also be seen each Monday during the school year on RNN's "NewsCenter Now," providing a look at the week ahead in local sports, as well as on "Varsity Central Extra," which appears on Thursdays at 6:30 p.m.
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Tyler Perrelle of Mahopac and goalie Chris Moffa of Fordham Prep race after a loose ball at Mahopac High School March 31, 2007. Mahopac won, 6-5. ( Dave Kennedy / The Journal News )
Tyler Perrelle of Mahopac and goalie Chris Moffa of Fordham Prep race after a loose ball at Mahopac High School March 31, 2007. Mahopac won, 6-5. ( Dave Kennedy / The Journal News )
Tyler Perrelle of Mahopac and goalie Chris Moffa of Fordham Prep race after a loose ball at Mahopac High School March 31, 2007. Mahopac won, 6-5. ( Dave Kennedy / The Journal News )
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Rye lost 7-1 to Mount Sinai in the New York State Class C boys lacrosse semifinal championship at Hofstra University in Hempstead June 12, 2008. ( Matthew Brown / The Journal News )
Rye lost 7-1 to Mount Sinai in the New York State Class C boys lacrosse semifinal championship at Hofstra University in Hempstead June 12, 2008. ( Matthew Brown / The Journal News )
Rye lost 7-1 to Mount Sinai in the New York State Class C boys lacrosse semifinal championship at Hofstra University in Hempstead June 12, 2008. ( Matthew Brown / The Journal News )
Rye lost 7-1 to Mount Sinai in the New York State Class C boys lacrosse semifinal championship at Hofstra University in Hempstead June 12, 2008. ( Matthew Brown / The Journal News )
Rye lost 7-1 to Mount Sinai in the New York State Class C boys lacrosse semifinal championship at Hofstra University in Hempstead June 12, 2008. ( Matthew Brown / The Journal News )
Rye lost 7-1 to Mount Sinai in the New York State Class C boys lacrosse semifinal championship at Hofstra University in Hempstead June 12, 2008. ( Matthew Brown / The Journal News )
Rye lost 7-1 to Mount Sinai in the New York State Class C boys lacrosse semifinal championship at Hofstra University in Hempstead June 12, 2008. ( Matthew Brown / The Journal News )
Rye lost 7-1 to Mount Sinai in the New York State Class C boys lacrosse semifinal championship at Hofstra University in Hempstead June 12, 2008. ( Matthew Brown / The Journal News )
Rye lost 7-1 to Mount Sinai in the New York State Class C boys lacrosse semifinal championship at Hofstra University in Hempstead June 12, 2008. ( Matthew Brown / The Journal News )
Rye lost 7-1 to Mount Sinai in the New York State Class C boys lacrosse semifinal championship at Hofstra University in Hempstead June 12, 2008. ( Matthew Brown / The Journal News )
Rye lost 7-1 to Mount Sinai in the New York State Class C boys lacrosse semifinal championship at Hofstra University in Hempstead June 12, 2008. ( Matthew Brown / The Journal News )


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